Land and Climate Seminar - Explaining the East Saharan heat low enhancement and excessive wet years in the central and eastern Sahel

Recent years have seen unprecedented rainfall and flooding in the central and eastern Sahel, even extending north into the Sahara desert. The present-day situation represents a stark contrast the drought in the 1970s and 1980s. In the presentation, it will be shown that the rainfall trends align with a northeastward shift of the West African monsoon related to a strengthening of the heat low over the East Sahara. It is hypothesised that the latter is related to a reduced heat low ventilation due to the warming of the Eastern Mediterranean sea surface temperatures and an enhanced „local“ greenhouse effect due to enhanced atmospheric humidity over the Saharo-Sahelian region.  The currently development can be seen as a harbinger of the coming decades.